Guns on Campus Would Add to the Mayhem

One of the themes of The End of the American Century is the exaggerated and destructive aspects of "American Exceptionalism"--the tendency for Americans to see themselves as exceptional, different and better than other peoples and countries. This takes extreme form in the combination of individualism and violence in this country, which is manifested in the peculiar (and exceptional!) obsession with individual gun ownership. The prevalence of firearms in the U.S.--almost as many as there are people--contributes to some 30,000 firearm deaths each year, and a homicide rate that is far higher than any other industrialized country.

For people in other countries, the levels of violence and the prevalence of guns in the U.S. invoke both amazement and horror. Global opinion surveys show that the two most common negative characterizations of Americans by foreigners are "greedy" and "violent." They contribute to the growing disillusionment with the U.S. (and with American citizens) in other countries, and to the view of the U.S. as being violent both in its foreign policy and inside its own borders.

In recent years, the National Rifle Association (NRA) has been pushing for the adoption of "conceal carry" laws in the states, and lately has been arguing for laws that would allow more guns on college campuses. They claim to see this as a way to avoid tragedies like those at Virginia Tech where a student killed 32 people in 2007. But few experts believe that arming students could prevent such a tragedy, and that it will simply lead to an increase in campus firearms injuries and deaths.

The NRA-sponsored bill in my state, Indiana, was introduced by a lifelong NRA member who wrote a letter to the Indianapolis Star arguing in support of the bill, Senate Bill 12. Below is my response to his letter, which appeared on the Star's website at the following link.

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Nothing positive to gain from guns on college campuses

Posted: February 13, 2009

In his recent letter to the editor, state Sen. Johnny Nugent contends that "allowing guns will make our campuses safer." He is a sponsor of Senate Bill 12, which would "prohibit a state college or university from regulating in any manner the ownership, possession, carrying, or transportation of firearms or ammunition." Nugent believes that

"the only thing that can stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun."

It would seem, though, that the best people to ask about security and safety on campus are the campus safety and police departments. Nugent would find that they overwhelmingly oppose this measure, as would almost all faculty and staff on campuses (as I am). Butler University Public Safety Director is Ben Hunter was formerly an officer with the Indianapolis Police Department. When I asked Hunter his views on this, he wrote "I am against the idea of carrying weapons on campus" and continued as follows:

"As a lifelong supporter of responsible gun ownership, I can attest that educational institutions and employers should be allowed to regulate their buildings and properties. Having students, faculty and staff possibly carrying guns on campus could result in accidental discharges, a false response to a threat and untrained persons that create an operational danger for (police). Proponents of such legislation will often talk about how well trained persons can assist with these threats; the only issue is that their training does not come close to what police officers are required to undertake."

College campuses are already much safer than the community in general, with far lower levels of both homicides and suicides. Surely, this is due, in part, to the prohibition of guns by most universities. Probably the biggest consequence of allowing guns on campus would be an increase in the incidence of suicide. Suicide is already the third leading cause of death for Hoosiers of college age, but suicides are much less common on college campuses than off. Since the most common means of death in suicides is a gun, increasing the number of guns on campus will only make suicides more likely.

Before pushing this law onto colleges and universities, our legislators should consult with those who are most familiar with the situation: the public safety departments, mental health professionals, and the deans of student life. I can't imagine that any of them would want to see more guns on campus.

Russian Reflections in a U.S. Mirror

A prominent Russian professor and former KGB analyst,Igor Panarin, predicts that the U.S. will collapse and break into six pieces next year. His forecasts are “all the rage” in Moscow and Panarin has become a media celebrity in Russia. As interesting as his theories are though, and as bad as things are in the U.S., his predictions are way overblown, reflect a shallow understanding of the United States, and actually tell us more about Russia than about the U.S.

In December the Wall Street Journal reported on an interview with Panarin, entitled “As If things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.” The Russian sees mass immigration, economic decline and moral degradation in the U.S. leading soon to a civil war and a collapse of the dollar. Soon thereafter, the richer states will withhold funds from the federal government, effectively seceding. The country will break into six pieces, based mostly on ethnicity, and foreign powers will move in to gobble them up. (There is a map of the future Un-United States in the WSJ article).

As with many such apocalyptic scenarios, there are bits of truth in Panarin’s analysis. He points to the problem of U.S. debt, and foreign debt in particular as a “pyramid scheme” that is unsustainable. In an Izvestia interview in November, he predicted the U.S. financial crisis would worsen, that unemployment would grow, and that people would lose their savings. He sees the revival and growth of both Russia and China as major political and economic powers. All this is pretty accurate.

However Panarin’s more extreme predictions about the U.S. seem more like a reflection of what has happened in Russia—-he is “projecting” as psychotherapists like to say. His concern about “moral decay” in the U.S., for example, is hard to fathom given the extremely high levels of alcoholism, divorce, crime and corruption in Russia. And the breakup of the US seems more a reflection of Russia’s own past—the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union into 15 separate countries. But the parallels are few: each of these 15 “republics” of the USSR were based on entirely different nationalities, or ethnic groups, with little holding them together but the centralizing force of the Communist Party. As contentious and fragmented as the US can sometimes seem, almost all people here still consider themselves, first and foremost, Americans.

What is most interesting about Panarin’s predictions—and their popularity in Russia—is what it says about Russia’s desired place in the world. The country has been through some very rough times over the last two decades, and under Putin has begun to revive and reassert itself. Vladimir Pozner, a prominent Russian tv journalist, says Panarin’s vision “reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia,” which, he says, is “much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union.”

In The End of the American Century, I point to Russia as one of America’s potential “New Rivals.” One can not ignore that Russia is the largest country in the world, occupying almost twice the territory of the U.S. Within those borders it contains the world’s most abundant array of natural resources. It is the world’s second largest producer and exporter of petroleum and has, by far, the world’s largest reserves of natural gas. Russia’s economy has been growing at about 7 percent annually. It also has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear warheads.

Both Russia’s citizens and its leaders want Russia to play a bigger role on the world stage and to be more respected by other countries. Premier Putin has been particularly vocal and critical of U.S. efforts to dominate the globe, referring not so subtly to a “world of one master, one sovereign.” He has said that “the trust in America as the leader of the free world and free economy is blown for ever.” (See The Economist's special report on Russia, "Enigma Variations," for more on this theme).

Russia has its share of problems, as the U.S. does. But it will be a force to reckon with, and the U.S. will have to learn to deal with Russia, as with other countries, as partners or competitors, rather than subordinates or enemies.

Galllup Poll Widget

I added a Gallup Poll widget to the sidebar of this page (scroll down on the right), which shows the latest favorability ratings for President Obama, and has links back to the Gallup home page for results of some of Gallup's recent surveys. Interesting and nifty!

The Measure of America

The Social Science Research Council and Columbia University Press have published a remarkable and eye-opening book, called The Measure of America: American Human Development Report 2008-2009, which could function as a companion and statistical supplement to The End of the American Century. In analyzing the domestic situation of the U.S., The Measure of America has many of the same themes, and similar (and supporting) evidence as my book. Like my book, it shows that on most measures of societal development, the U.S. has declined over recent decades, and lost ground compared to other countries.

The Measure of America is modeled on the annual Human Development Report published since 1990 by the United Nations Development Programme. That series attempted to get away from the raw economic indicator of Gross Domestic Product, and to determine the level of human development in each country. The “human development index” used by UNDP, an alternative to GDP, was “a composite index measuring average achievement in the three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living.” (From the Human Development Report 2006).

The Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen was instrumental in developing the Human Development Report, and wrote the Foreword to The Measure of America. There, he writes that

“we have to judge the success of a society, including its economy, not just in terms of national wealth or the ubiquitous GNP, but in terms of the freedoms and capabilities that people enjoy to live as they would value living” (p. xi).

Sen observes that this approach has been “remarkably neglected in the United States in particular” and notes in this country “a major discrepancy between opulence and achievement.” The U.S. may be on some measures the world’s wealthiest nation, but “its accomplishments in longevity, secure health, fine education and other such basic features of good living are considerably below those of many other—often much poorer—countries.” He also notes, as I do in my book, that the position of the U.S. relative to other countries has been “steadily falling” over the years (p. xii).

The book itself assembles data in clearly presented tables on the three main “building blocks” of the human development index: a long and healthy life; access to knowledge; and a decent standard of living. In all three areas, the U.S. fares poorly in comparison to other countries. Compared to other wealthy countries, for example, the U.S. ranks #24 in life expectancy; #18 in high school graduation rates; and #2 in poverty rates (you don’t want to rank high on that one!).

The data shows the downward trend for the U.S. over time in most of these measures as well. And for the overall index, the U.S. world rank dropped from #2 in 1980 (behind only Switzerland) to #12 in 2005. Countries ahead of us include much of western Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan.

(The American Human Development Project also maintains a useful website at this link.)

These are all trends and themes presented in The End of the American Century, where I also use authoritative data (including many of the same measures used in The Measure of America). They point out how far the U.S. has fallen, and how much work we have to do. The problems of the U.S., both economic and social, predate the disastrous Bush presidency, which simply exacerbated them all. It took more than eight years to dig us into this hole, and will take at least that long to recover. But we have to recognize these problems and understand them before we can begin to solve them.

The Measure of America: American Human Development Report, 2008-2009 (A Columbia / SSRC Book)

Obama Imposes CEO Pay Limits

Limiting CEO pay must be in the air! I posted a blog with such a proposal on Saturday, before learning that Senator McCaskill had introduced a bill with similar provisions on Friday. Then yesterday President Obama himself announced executive pay limits, along very similar lines as my own "modest proposal." (Do you think the Prez reads my blog?!!).

According to the New York Times story, these executive pay limits "seek to alter corporate culture" which in my view is long overdue and would be a major accomplishment. According to the Times, "the new rules would set a $500,000 cap on cash compensation forthe most senior exeutives, curtail severance pay when top executives left a company,[and] restrict cashing in on stock incentives until government assistance was repaid."

President Obama observed that "This is America" and "We don't disparage wealth" or people achieving success. But "what gets people upset--and rightfully so--are executives being rewarded for failure. Especially when those rewards are subsidized by U.S. taxpayers."

"For top executives to award themselves these kinds of compensation packages," the President said, "in the midst of this economic crisis is not only in bad taste, it's a bad strategy, and I will not tolerate it as president." He pointed to this kind of CEO extravagance reflecting "a culture of narrow self-interest and short-term gain at the expense of everything else."

Bravo, Mr. President. This may be mostly a symbolic gesture, but symbols are important. What this country needs now, even more than an economic stimulus package, is a change of heart, and a change in the way we think, believe and behave. Just as when the President said "The United States does not torture," he is sending a message to Americans and to the rest of the world that the United States is changing.

(See my previous entries on CEO pay by clicking on the "CEO pay" label in the right sidebar).

Limit Bailout CEO pay to U.S. President's Salary

President Obama called Wall Street bankers "shameful" after reports that they had given themselves some $20 billion in bonuses this year, just as the economy was deteriorating and the government spending billions to bail them out.

Here's a modest proposal: for companies receiving federal bailouts, let's limit the pay of those CEOs to what the President of the United States earns--$400,000.

Once those bailout companies have repaid our tax-paid bailout money, they can return to paying themselves tens of millions of dollars yearly, as they do now.

Indeed, just this week Senator Claire McCaskill (Dem, Missouri) introduced a bill that would cap compensation at $400K for all employees of bailout recipients.

To give you some context, here are the top ten recipients of federal bailout money under the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program).


1. Bank of America, $45 billion
2. Citigroup, $45 billion
3. AIG, $40 billion
4. JPMorgan Chase, $25 billion
5. Wells Fargo, $25 billion
6. General Motors, $10.2 billion
7. Goldman Sachs, $10 billion
8. Morgan Stanley, $10 billion
9. PNC Financial, $7.6 billion
10. U.S. Bankcorp, $6.6 billion

And here are the 2007 total compensations for the CEOs of those same firms:

1. Kenneth Lewis, $20.4 million
2. Vikram Pandit, $3.2 million
3. Martin Sullivan, $13.9 million
4. James Dimon, $28.9 million
5. John Stumpf, $11.4 million
6. G. R. Wagoner, $15.7 million
7. Lloyd Blankfein, $54 million
8. John Mack, $41.4 million
9. James Rohr, $14.5 million
10. Richard Davis, $5.9 million

These men are all multimillionaires, even if you only count their take from last year. They can afford to slum it for a while on the salary of the President of the United States. And if these CEOs are genuinely committed to help their companies, and the United States, recover, then they should be willing to forego a little extravagance for a few years. If they are unwilling to do so, then the federal government should appoint a caretaker CEO until the bailouts have been repaid.

The rules of the game have changed. These companies and their CEOs have brought this country to the brink of economic disaster. The government has stepped in to save these companies, as a means of rescuing the economy. There can no longer be any argument that multimillion dollar compensation packages are necessary to attract "talent." It was not true in the past (when CEO salaries were far lower); it is not true in other countries (where CEO salaries are a small fraction of American ones--see chart below); and it is not true now--when this "talent" drove their companies, and the economy, into the ground.

Congress has talked about limiting the pay of bailout CEOs, but they have done nothing about it. It is time. And this idea--of limiting these CEO salaries to the level of the highest paid government executive--was even profferred by Republican John McCain during the campaign:

"no C.E.O. of any corporation or business that is bailed out by us, that is rescued by American tax dollars, should receive any more than the highest paid person in the federal government.”

CEO Pay as a Multiple of Average Worker Pay, in US and Other Countries

(from The End of the American Century, p. 40.

Interview and Review of "The End of the American Century"

David Hoppe interviewed me and wrote a story on my book in the 1/28 issue of Nuvo magazine. I believe he nicely captures the essence of the book, and my thinking about the current situation and place of the U.S. The story can be found at this link.